Ignite Creation Date:
2024-05-06 @ 8:10 PM
Last Modification Date:
2024-10-26 @ 3:22 PM
Study NCT ID:
NCT06289075
Status:
RECRUITING
Last Update Posted:
2024-03-01
First Post:
2024-02-24
Brief Title:
PrognostICate- StudyPrognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040
Sponsor:
University Hospital of Cologne
Organization:
University Hospital of Cologne
Study Overview
Official Title:
Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 Using Statistical Projection Models and Retrospective Data From International Databases From 2005-2023 PrognostICate- Study
Status:
RECRUITING
Status Verified Date:
2024-07
Last Known Status:
None
Delayed Posting:
No
If Stopped, Why?:
Not Stopped
Has Expanded Access:
False
If Expanded Access, NCT#:
N/A
Has Expanded Access, NCT# Status:
N/A
Acronym:
PrognostICate
Brief Summary:
The Objective of this retrospective multicenter- study is to forecast Intensive Care Unit ICU length of stay ICULOS and length of mechanical ventilation LOMV in ICU patients of different groups regarding gender age group medical vs surgical admission worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models and historical national and international ICU databases and population databases
Detailed Description:
Adequate resource allocation in Intensive Care Medicine is especially challenging due to limited resources and increasing demands for ICU capacities due to an aging population and medical advances Several studies in the past were trying to predict ICULOS using different models The Objective and aim of our retrospective multicenter study are to forecast ICU length of stay ICULOS and length of mechanical ventilation LOMV in ICU patients of different groups regarding gender age group medical vs surgical admission worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models
To achieve this objective historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 is collected from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models ARIMA-Model Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average logistic regression Poisson Regression and ETS Exponential smoothing to make these predictions The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 7525 of the dataset The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting GATHER Statement von Stevens et al from the year 2016
The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future
To achieve this objective historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 is collected from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models ARIMA-Model Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average logistic regression Poisson Regression and ETS Exponential smoothing to make these predictions The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 7525 of the dataset The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting GATHER Statement von Stevens et al from the year 2016
The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future
Study Oversight
Has Oversight DMC:
None
Is a FDA Regulated Drug?:
False
Is a FDA Regulated Device?:
False
Is an Unapproved Device?:
None
Is a PPSD?:
None
Is a US Export?:
None
Is an FDA AA801 Violation?:
None